ETDPROG  WEB  PAGE

Latest Update:  January 2, 2011

Latest Experimental Version Of The Etdprog.exe Program - 2011/01/02

Etdprog.zip.1.C.2.2010/06/22

Etdprog.zip.1.B.3.2009/03/05 - EarthWaves Site
(The same as Etdprog.zip.1.C.2.2010/06/22 but with older documentation and data files)

is presently available for downloads.

This Etdprog.html Web page contains information regarding
the Etdprog earthquake and tornado data evaluation computer program.

HOW  TO  DOWNLOAD  THE  ETDPROG.EXE  PROGRAM
AND  GET  IT  RUNNING  ON  YOUR  COMPUTER

HOW  TO  INTERPRET  THE  ETDPROG.EXE  PROGRAM'S  CHARTS,  MAPS,  AND  REPORTS

OTHER  DOWNLOADABLE  FREEWARE  PROGRAMS

The Latest Earthquake Forecasting Data    Earthquake Forecasting Resources    The Meteoquake Web Site


Latest Experimental Version Of The Etdprog.exe Program - 2010/01/02

       The following exe, dat, and bat files are the most recent updates for the various files that go into the experimental C:\Forecast\ directory.  They should be downloaded and stored in that directory.  Then the exe files should be run so that their files can be extracted.   Double click the _Start.lnk file to run the Etdprog.exe program.  The year 2010 Year Chart should eventually display.

Open this file for the most recent download and file extraction instructions. ReadMe.dat

Extract.bat
Current.dat
Dataeqem.exe
Datatest.dat
Etd.exe
Forecast.exe
ReadMe.dat
Chart-A.exe
2010.exe
2009.exe
2008.exe
2007.exe
2006.exe
2005.exe
2004.exe
2003.exe
2002.exe
2001.exe

       The following are the creation dates for most recent updates for the above files.  People running the Etdprog.exe program can check the contents of their Current.dat file in their computer's C:\Forecast\ directory to see if they have the latest updates for these files.

Etdprog  -  A computer program used to forecast earthquakes and
                    make discoveries about the seismic activity world.

                    Click here for the downloadable Etdprog.zip file.

Computer Virus Precautions

How To Download The Program And Get It Running On Your Computer

The Etdprog Computer Program’s Three Purposes
     Earthquake Forecasting
     Earthquake Triggering Research
     Tornado Forecasting

EM Signals  -  Electromagnetic Energy Field Pulses That Are Processed By The Etdprog Computer Program

The Etdprog Program Displays Forecast Data Using:   Charts   Maps   Reports

The Database File Earthquake Chart Line

The Etdprog Computer Program Attempts To Forecast Earthquakes By:
     Determining The Location Of A Fault Zone Responsible For An EM Signal
     Determining If An EM Signal Generation Time And A Specific Earthquake’s
          Occurrence Time Were Associated With The Same Earthquake Triggering Forces
     Determining Which Earthquakes Matched An Averaged Group Of EM Signals
     Determining Which Earthquakes Matched Multiple Averaged Groups Of EM Signals
     Enabling Researchers To Do Advanced Earthquake Triggering Research

How The Etdprog Computer Program Does Its Probability Calculations
     Earthquake Data Fingerprints    Subsolar, Sublunar, And Gravity Points

Proof That The Etdprog Computer Program Works
     Earthquake Pairs

EM Signals For The Years 2001 Through 2010

Destructive Earthquakes And Their Aftershocks

Some Of The Program’s Options

Program Availability And System Requirements

The Program’s Source Code

The GNU License

Other Downloadable Computer Programs

Future Efforts

Other Earthquake Forecasting Technologies

 

THE  ETDPROG  EARTHQUAKE  FORECASTING  COMPUTER  PROGRAM

       Etdprog.exe is the Earthquake and Tornado Data evaluation computer PROGram that is being discussed on this Web page.  Freeware downloadable copies of the program and its support files are available in the Etdprog.zip file through a GNU license (Free Software Foundation).  Instructions for how to download and use the program can be found in How To Download The Program and Get It Running On Your Computer, in the Etdprog-ReadMe.html Web page and in the ReadMe.dat file in the Etdprog.zip file.  ReadMe.dat should be opened using Windows Wordpad or Word for Windows.

       The SunGP.exe program included in the Etdprog.zip package is discussed on the SunGP.html Web page.  And an earlier version of the Etdprog.exe program along with its source code is available in the Archive.zip file.   Etdprog-archive.txt can also be examined.  A Perl language program compiler has to be used to get that source code file to run.  Free download Perl language compilers can be found at the ActiveState Web site.

 

COMPUTER  VIRUS  PRECAUTIONS

       Etdprog.zip is a Windows zip file.  And there are at least four.exe type files in Etdprog.zip.  They are Etdprog.exe, SunGP.exe, wgnuplot.exe, and pgnuplot.exe.  Some downloadable zip and exe files available on the Internet are known to contain computer viruses.  And when the zip file is opened or the exe files are run, the virus might infect the user’s computer.

       Etdprog.zip and the programs and files that it contains were created and compiled using standard Windows, ActivePerl, Gnuplot, and TrueBasic programs (those four are trademarks).  And none of the Etdprog.zip programs and files stored by the programs’ developers at the Meteoquake Web site should contain any computer viruses.

       Expert computer users should be able to run virus scans on the Etdprog.zip programs and files after they have been downloaded, determine that they are safe, and then use them.  If less experienced computer users are concerned about the integrity of the programs etc. they might try testing them on an older computer that does not contain any important data.

 

HOW  TO  DOWNLOAD  THE  PROGRAM  AND  GET  IT  RUNNING  ON  YOUR  COMPUTER

       Detailed instructions for how to download and use the program can be found in the Etdprog-ReadMe.html Web page, and in the ReadMe.dat file in the Etdprog.zip file.  ReadMe.dat should be opened using Windows Wordpad or Word for Windows.

       The Etdprog computer “Program” consists of a main Forecast directory within which there are about a half dozen subdirectories, several computer programs, and dozens of support files.  All of those programs and support files. have been compressed into the Etdprog.zip file for faster downloads and to make it easier to circulate copies of the program by E-mail.

       For a brief summary of what needs to be done  -  The Etdprog.zip file needs to be downloaded.  Then the Forecast directory and all of its files have to be extracted from the zip file and stored at some location on a computer, external hard drive, or flash drive.  Finally, the “Start” shortcut file in the Forecast directory might need to be modified depending on where the Forecast directory is stored.  When the program starts running for the first time it will ask the user for some startup default values such as the UTC correction time that is needed for converting local AM and PM times to UTC time (Universal, GMT, or Zulu time).

 

THE  ETDPROG  COMPUTER  PROGRAM  WAS  DEVELOPED  FOR  THREE  PURPOSES:

Earthquake Forecasting

       Government scientists, disaster mitigation personnel, and professional and amateur researchers can use it to compare electromagnetic pulses with past earthquakes in an effort to determine when and where earthquakes are likely to occur.

Earthquake Triggering Research

       Researchers can use it to compare EM Signals with EM Signals, EM Signals with earthquakes, and earthquakes with other earthquakes and in the process learn how and why earthquakes are being triggered.

Tornado Forecasting

       It might be possible to use the program to determine that electromagnetic energy fields similar to those associated with earthquakes, are responsible for the spawning and behavior of some tornados.  At the present time tornado forecasting is not being discussed at length on this Web page.

 

EM  SIGNALS

       EM Signals are earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic pulses that the Etdprog computer program processes.  They usually have durations of 0.25 to 20 seconds.  Some are likely strongest near the earthquake fault zone responsible for them.  Many can probably be detected fairly easily anywhere on the planet.  Present theories propose that they are linked with geomagnetic energy field activity associated with the earthquake fault zone activity, with volcano activity, with solar storm activity, and with hurricanes.

       Some EM Signal data can be found on the Data.html Web page.  People can try contacting me by E-mail for additional data.  EM Signal data can also be found at a number of other Internet Web sites.  Some of those sites are listed on the Earthquake Forecasting Resources Web page.  Others can be found by doing Internet searches.    

        Some of the most abundant and easily collected and processed EM Signals are what are frequently referred to as Ear Tones.  They appear to represent biological responses to earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic pulses.  Ones that I myself have studied that have been sent to me by people around the world are tones that can be heard in either the left or right ear but usually not in both ears at the same time.  They last between five and twenty seconds.  Their frequency is perhaps around 7000 cycles per second.  And the sound is a “ping” that is similar to the sound created when a wine glass is tapped with a metal object.  They can be easily duplicated under laboratory conditions.  A number of researchers claim to have developed radio receiver types of instruments that can detect the signals.

        Ear Tones are probably most frequently heard by people living near fault zones though some can apparently be heard by people living anywhere.  They can be detected by perhaps one person in a thousand.  And so in a city of a million people there might be a thousand people who can hear them.  They work remarkably well with the Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program.  And with so many people detecting them government agencies and researchers attempting to forecast earthquakes could have virtually unlimited amounts of EM Signal data to work with.

        Additional information regarding Ear Tones and other types of biological responses to earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic pulses can be found on the   Earthquake Triggering, Earthquake Precursors, And Earthquake Sensitivity Web page.

 

THE  PROGRAM  DISPLAYS  FORECAST  DATA  THROUGH
THE  USE  OF  CHARTS,  MAPS,  AND  REPORTS

       The Etdprog computer program compares EM signals with earthquakes, and earthquakes with other earthquakes.  It then uses the Gnuplot graphics program (Gnuplot copyright information) to display results on Charts and Maps, and one of the computer user's word processor programs to display results in Reports.  Examples of those Charts, Maps, and Reports are presented here.  Information regarding how to interpret the Charts, Maps, and Reports can be found on the Etdprog-Interpret.html Web page.

CHARTS

       The Chart option for individual EM Signals and earthquakes is operational in the present version of the Etdprog.exe computer program.  However the Chart option for the averaged group of EM Signals used to generate the following Chart will not be available until some adjustment are made to the program source code so that the option is compatible with other recently made changes to the source code.

       The following Chart was generated by having the program compare EM Signal data collected in late 2003 and early 2004 with the more than fifty thousand earthquakes stored in the programs present database file that contains data for earthquakes that occurred between January 1, 1990 and a recent date in 2008.

       Each of those Chart lines represents EM Signal data collected during a three month period of time that ended on the date associated with the line.  The EM Signals in a given time window were averaged together to produce a single Chart data line.

       Where there is a peak at some longitude on a Chart line it means that the averaged EM Signals associated with that line were good matches for some of the database file earthquakes that occurred at that longitude.

       The Chart shows that at 121 W longitude there were peaks on the Chart lines before and after December 21, 2003.  And on December 22, 2003 the following destructive earthquake occurred in California, USA.

2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 7.6 6.5 Central California

(U.S. National Earthquake Information Service Data)

       When government scientists, disaster mitigation personnel, and professional and amateur researchers around the world run the Etdprog computer program on their own computers and they observe Chart line peaks appearing at the longitudes of locations of interest to them such as where they live, it can serve as a notice that they should begin checking for other signs of a possible approaching earthquake.  Those signs - earthquake precursors - could include large, fresh cracks in building foundations, excessive static noise on television and radio signals, abrupt ground and well water level changes, Earthquake Clouds, and unusual behavior by pet, farm, zoo, and wild animals.

       It would be important to check for other earthquake warning signs or precursors because there can be a peak at a Chart line location were there will not be an earthquake.  Some of those false location peaks are associated with the way that the Etdprog computer program presently performs its complex probability calculations.  And they are unfortunately unavoidable at this time.

MAPS

       The following Map was generated by having the Etdprog computer program expand the December 21, 2003 data line in the above Chart so that the locations of the fifty or so nondestructive earthquakes and fifty or so destructive ones that were the best matches for the EM Signals associated with that Chart line are displayed.  Each plus sign (+) is the location of one of those earthquakes.

       As can be easily seen, with that December 21, 2003 Chart line there were quite a few matching earthquakes along the U.S. West Coast.

REPORTS

       The following is the 121 W longitude area part of the Report the Etdprog computer program generated related to that December 21, 2003 Chart line.  It lists the actual earthquakes that were associated with that Chart line and also displayed on the above Map.

       It should be remembered that the Chart, Map, and Report were generated using the present earthquake database file that contains earthquakes that occurred between January 1, 1990 and a recent date in 2008.  That is why the Report contains earthquakes that occurred after the December 22, 2003 California earthquake.  They were better matches for the EM Signals than some of the earthquakes that occurred before December 22, 2003.

       The numbers in the Pa and Pd columns show how well the earthquake matched the EM signals in the December 21, 2003 Chart line group.   Pa refers to all of the earthquakes in the database file.  Pd refers to just the destructive ones.  The numbers in the D column are related to one measure of how destructive the earthquake was.  The higher the number, the more destructive the earthquake.

 LON LAT   Pa: Pd:  D Earthquake

-113
-114
-115  37   96:   :    2007/05/02 20:34:38 37.12N 115.30W   0 2.9 Nevada
-116
-117  34   96:   :    2006/12/19 07:15:51 34.34N 116.75W   3 3.0 Southern California
-118  34   96:   :    2007/10/09 19:09:07 33.56N 118.22W  15 3.1 San Pedro Channel, California
-119  38   96:   :    2007/10/09 13:12:02 38.47N 118.50W   9 3.5 Nevada
-119  34   93: 97:  2 1994 Jan 17 12:30:55  34.213 118.53W  186.4 6.8 Northridge, Southern California
-120
-121  36   98:   :    2004/11/27  02:08:18 35.70N 121.04W 6 3.4 Central California
-121  36   98:   :    2003/12/23  02:06:55 35.69N 121.11W 6.0 4.2 Central California
-121  36   98:   :    2003/12/22  19:53:29 35.65N 121.05W 4.5 4.6 Central California
-121  36   86: 89:  1 2003/12/22  19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 7.6 6.5 Central California
-122  46   96:   :    2006/07/09 12:56:35 46.20N 122.19W   0 3.2 Mount St. Helens Area, Washington
-122  37   89: 92:  2 1989/10/18  00:04:15 37.03N 121.88W 19.0 7.1 San Francisco, California
-123  38   97:   :    2007/05/17 02:16:34 38.49N 122.72W   6 3.0 Northern California
-123  39   97:   :    2007/04/18 08:56:15 39.47N 123.10W   5 2.6 Northern California
-123  39   98:   :    2007/02/02 21:19:25 38.92N 122.51W   0 2.7 Northern California
-123  39   98:   :    2004/09/13  01:29:00 38.83N 122.81W 4.6 2.8 Northern California
-123  47   88: 91:  1 2001/02/28  18:54:33  47.15N 122.72W  52.4 6.8M Washington
-124
-125
-126  42   97:   :    2004/10/12  00:53:52 41.53N 125.59W 10.0 4.6 Off The Coast Of Northern California
-127  43   97:   :    2004/09/14  14:29:06 43.27N 126.86W 10.0 3.4 Off The Coast Of Oregon
-128
-129 -55   97:   :    2003/04/16  20:24:33 55.36S 128.80W 10.0 5.0
-130
-131

The Database File Earthquake Chart Line  -  When Charts are displayed the user can press the D keyboard key.  And as the following Chart demonstrates, at the top there will a line displayed that shows what percentage of the earthquakes in the Dataeqem.dat database file occurred at different longitudes.

       That option is important for research purposes and understanding why Chart line peaks are more likely to be found at certain locations.  The Etdprog program compares EM Signals or earthquakes with the database file earthquakes and then selects the best matches from that file.  The laws of probability state that it is likely to find some good matches at longitudes where large numbers of earthquakes occurred.

THE  ETDPROG  COMPUTER  PROGRAM  ATTEMPTS  TO  FORECAST
EARTHQUAKES  THROUGH  THE  USE  OF  THE  FOLLOWING  PROCEDURES

This section of this report briefly discusses the earthquake forecasting
operations the Etdprog computer program can perform.

DETERMINING  THE  LOCATION  OF  A  FAULT  ZONE  RESPONSIBLE  FOR  AN
EM  SIGNAL  BY  COMPARING  THE  SIGNAL  WITH  MANY  EARTHQUAKES

       The Etdprog computer program can compare a single EM Signal with data for more than fifty thousand earthquakes in the program’s Dataeqem.dat database file.  It will then generate Charts, Maps, and Reports that indicate which earthquakes in the database file were the best matches for the EM Signal.  An expected earthquake might then occur near where one of those matching earthquakes occurred.

       The following Chart shows the result of the Etdprog computer program’s test of an EM Signal detected on October 8, 2007.  It can be seen that there is a large peak in the 122 W longitude area suggesting that a significant earthquake might be about to occur there.  Three weeks later the following moderately destructive earthquake did occur in California.

2007/10/31 03:04:55 37.43 N 121.77W 9 5.6 San Francisco Bay Area, California

       The following Map is an expansion of that Chart line.  It shows the location of the earthquakes responsible for the peaks on that Chart line.

DETERMINING  IF  AN  EM  SIGNAL  GENERATION  TIME  AND
A  SPECIFIC  EARTHQUAKE’S  OCCURRENCE  TIME  WERE
ASSOCIATED  WITH  THE  SAME  EARTHQUAKE  TRIGGERING  FORCES

       The program can compare a single EM Signal with other EM Signals or with individual earthquakes.  That enables the program user to more accurately determine the quality of the match between the EM Signal and a specific past earthquake for example.  A close match could indicate that the expected earthquake will occur near the location of the matching earthquake.

       The above Chart and Map indicated that an earthquake could occur somewhere on the U.S. West Coast.  The following Chart shows the data generated when the Etdprog computer program compared that EM Signal and another detected during October of 2007, with a number of California earthquakes.  The fact that the lines look so similar provides some confirmation that a significant California earthquake could be about to occur there.  And in late October the following moderately destructive California earthquake did occur.  It was the most powerful one in that area in almost two decades.

2007/10/31 03:04:55 37.43 N 121.77W 9 5.6 San Francisco Bay Area, California

DETERMINING  WHICH  EARTHQUAKES  MATCHED
AN  AVERAGED  GROUP  OF  EM  SIGNALS

       The program can average together multiple EM Signals and compare them with past earthquakes as if the multiple signals were a single EM Signal.  An expected earthquake might then occur near where one of those matching earthquakes occurred.  That averaging procedure can help reduce the amount of random fluctuation often found when individual EM Signals are tested.

       The December 21, 2003 Chart line on the following Chart represents the analysis of more than one hundred EM Signals detected during the three month time window preceding that date.  The signals were averaged together by the Etdprog computer program and tested as if they were a single signal.  The peak at 121 W longitude indicated that a significant earthquake could be about to occur there.  And on December 22, 2003 the following destructive earthquake occurred in California.

2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 7.6 6.5 Central California

DETERMINING  WHICH  EARTHQUAKES  MATCHED
MULTIPLE  AVERAGED  GROUPS  OF  EM  SIGNALS

This option is not yet available in download versions of the program

       The program can process multiple groups of averaged EM Signals.  Each group is offset from the next group by ten days.  The resulting Chart lines will have peaks on them that make it possible to see how, over a period of time, the signals could be pointing to earthquakes occurring at different locations.

       The explained earlier on this Web page, the above Chart was generated by having the program compare EM Signal data collected in late 2003 and early 2004 with the more than fifty thousand earthquakes stored in the programs present database file that contains data for earthquakes that occurred between January 1, 1990 and a recent date in 2008.

       Each of those Chart lines represents EM Signal data collected during a three month period of time that ended on the date associated with the line.  The EM Signals in a given time window were averaged together to produce a single Chart data line.

       Where there is a peak at some longitude on a Chart line it means that the averaged EM Signals associated with that line were good matches for some of the database file earthquakes that occurred at that longitude.

       The Chart shows that at 121 W longitude there were peaks on the Chart lines before and after December 21, 2003.  And on December 22, 2003 the following destructive earthquake occurred in California, USA.

2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 7.6 6.5 Central California

ENABLING  RESEARCHERS  TO  DO  ADVANCED
EARTHQUAKE  TRIGGERING  RESEARCH

       The Etdprog computer program lets the user compare individual EM Signals and earthquakes with one another.  When good matches are observed between EM Signals and EM Signals, or EM Signals and earthquakes, or earthquakes and other earthquakes, that can indicate that they were triggered by the same forces.

       The following highly unusual and remarkable Chart/Map contains data for a number of EM Signals that were detected on January 25, 2001, shortly before a destructive earthquake occurred in India.  Data for that earthquake are also displayed.  And the bottom Chart line is for the Earthquake Database earthquakes.  Maps for individual signals are also displayed.

       The EM Signals that were detected closest to the time of the earthquake were good matches for it, something that is observed fairly often.  And a significant earthquake was expected at that time.  Had the Etdprog computer program existed back then, perhaps it would have been possible to determine where the earthquake would occur.

       Researchers examining those data might notice that most of the EM Signals are separated from one another by about forty-five minutes, with a gap of ninety minutes (2 x 45) between signals five and six.  Those evenly spaced time intervals are probably indicating something important regarding the signal generation mechanism.  A theory being presently evaluated proposes that the signals might be related to a sun and moon gravities related rocking motion in the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate located to the west of Seattle, Washington, USA where a powerful earthquake occurred about a month later.

       The following Chart/Map contains data for a number of EM Signals that were detected before the two highly destructive 1998 Afghanistan earthquakes.  Data for both earthquake are also displayed.  And the bottom Chart line is for the Earthquake Database earthquakes.  Maps for individual signals are also displayed.

HOW  THE  ETDPROG  COMPUTER  PROGRAM  DOES  ITS  PROBABILITY  CALCULATIONS

       The Etdprog computer program works by generating groups of Earthquake Data Fingerprint numbers for EM signals and earthquakes, and then comparing those groups of numbers with one another.  Charts, Maps, or Reports are generated to show the results of the comparisons.

Earthquake Data Fingerprints  -  The program’s Dataeqem.dat database file contains records of more than fifty thousand earthquakes.  Associated with each earthquake there are six Earthquake Data Fingerprint numbers.  Five of the numbers represent information regarding the longitudes of the Gravity Point, the Sublunar Point, and ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide crests and troughs at the times the earthquakes occurred.  The sixth Earthquake Data Fingerprint number is associated with the actual earthquake longitude.  EM signals do not have longitudes like an earthquake.  And they have only five Earthquake Data Fingerprint numbers associated with them.

Subsolar, Sublunar, And Gravity Points  -  If a line is drawn between the center of the Earth and the center of the moon, the Sublunar Point is the location of the point where the line crosses the surface of the Earth.  The Subsolar Point is a similar location for a line drawn between the centers of the Earth and the sun.  The Gravity Point is a location on the surface of the Earth where the sun and moon gravities are combined using a ratio of 2.5 for moon gravity strength versus sun gravity strength.  It is always fairly close to the location of the Sublunar Point and is intended to be somewhere in the vicinity of the location where the Tide Generating Force is strongest.

       The Earthquake Data Fingerprint numbers are in the range 0 to 89.  They are generated through the use of calculations that are discussed in the following report:  Earthquake Data Fingerprints

       In a process that involves large numbers of calculations, the five Earthquake Data Fingerprint numbers for an EM Signal time are compared with the six numbers for each of the more than fifty thousand earthquakes in the Dataeqem.dat database file.  And a probability value is generated for each of those earthquakes.  It indicates how well that earthquake matched the EM Signal.  Those probability values for all of the more than fifty thousand earthquakes are then stored in special files in the Etdprog program’s Filese directory.

       When an earthquake is tested, the Etdprog compares the six numbers associated with it with the six numbers associated with each of the earthquakes in the database file and calculates probability values for the earthquakes just as with the EM Signals.  And the probability values are stored in special files in the Etdprog program’s Filesq directory.

       Finally, the program selects roughly fifty nondestructive earthquakes and fifty destructive ones that are the best matches with the EM signal or earthquake being tested.  And it uses Charts, Maps, and Reports to display those earthquakes.

PROOF  THAT  THE  ETDPROG  COMPUTER  PROGRAM   WORKS

       Three pieces of information are being discussed here to demonstrate that the Etdprog works.  The third piece of information is probably the best evidence.

First  -  As the program developer I have been having some success with using the program to tell where certain earthquakes could be about to occur.

Second  -  The following previously discussed Chart shows that the program works.

       The peaks at 121 W longitude started to appear at least a month before the destructive December 22, 2003 earthquake in California, USA.  And they disappeared after it occurred.  They probably would have disappeared almost immediately after the earthquake except for the fact that a three month EM Signal time window is being used.  So the January 2004 Chart lines were based in part on EM signals detected during November and December of 2003.

Those Chart peaks were not there by coincidence.  They have been observed before other earthquakes.

Third  -  The following fairly lengthy and complex discussion provides some of the best technical evidence showing that the program works.  This information should be understandable by anyone who has a moderately good background in physics.

Earthquake Pairs  -  Two (or more) earthquakes that were triggered by similar earthquake triggering forces.  Examples would be the two destructive 1998 Afghanistan earthquakes and the two destructive 1999 Turkey earthquakes.

       The Etdprog program’s Dataeqem.dat database contains records for more than fifty thousand earthquakes that occurred between January 1, 1990 and a recent date in 2008.  And the peaks on the top line on the following Chart show the longitudes of those earthquakes.  It can be seen that quite a few occurred around 70W longitude.  There were almost none around 50W.

       The bottom two Chart lines are for the two highly destructive earthquakes that occurred in Turkey in 1998.   With each of them the Etdprog program chose the 50 earthquakes from its database file that were the best matches for the earthquake that was associated with the Chart line.  If the Etdprog program were generating random numbers then both of those lines would be roughly similar in appearance to the top line.  That is because the program would preferentially choose matches from longitudes where the most earthquakes in the database file occurred.  However, the two bottom Chart lines look quite different from the top line.  They do look quite a bit like one another.

       To understand how the differences between those two bottom lines and the top line demonstrate that the Etdprog program is working it is necessary to understand how the program compares EM Signals with earthquakes, and earthquakes with other earthquakes.  And in order to make that explanation as simple as possible only the data for the Sublunar Point will be discussed here.  However, it should be remembered that when it does its calculations the program actually uses those Sublunar Point data plus Gravity Point data (a location on the Earth’s surface where the sun and moon gravities are combined), data for two ocean tide crest and trough locations, and data for a Solid Earth Tide crest and trough location.

       If a line is drawn between the centers of the Earth and the moon then the Sublunar Point is the location on the surface of the Earth through which that line passes.  The longitude of the Sublunar Point was determined for the time when each of the more than fifty thousand earthquakes in the Etdprog’s Dataeqem.dat database file occurred.  An Earthquake Data Fingerprint number associated with that longitude information is included in each earthquake data line in that file.

       The Etdprog program compared the Earthquake Data Fingerprint number associated with the Sublunar Point longitude for each of those 1999 Turkey earthquakes with the same type of number for each of the more than fifty thousand earthquakes in the Dataeqem.dat file.  And the fifty database earthquakes that has Sublunar Point numbers that were the best matches with each of the Turkey earthquake Sublunar Point numbers were selected.  With each of the Chart lines a dot or pixel was placed on the Chart showing the longitude of each of those fifty earthquakes.  Where there is a peak on a Chart line it indicates that that Turkey earthquake was a good match for a number of those past earthquakes that occurred at that longitude.

       If the earthquake occurrence times were truly random then the two bottom Chart lines would look roughly the same as the top line.  That is because the program would have selected earthquakes from the locations where there are peaks on the top line.  The fact that the two Turkey earthquake Chart lines look different from the top line demonstrate that the earthquake selection process was not random.  And the fact that the two earthquakes look similar to one another demonstrate that they were both triggered by similar earthquake triggering forces.

       The probability that after all of those Sublunar Point and Gravity Point etc. calculations were done, the two 1999 Turkey earthquake Chart lines could look so different from the top line and so similar to one another by chance is extremely small.  And similar results have been obtained with other Earthquake Pairs.  Those extremely low probability numbers then show that the Etdprog program works.  It would be virtually impossible for those lines to look they way that they do by chance.  And in a similar manner, the Sublunar Point longitudes etc. for EM Signals are compared with those more than fifty thousand earthquakes.  And the Charts, Maps, and Reports then point to the locations of past earthquakes that were good matches for the EM Signals.

EM  SIGNALS  FOR  THE  YEARS:

2010   2009   2008   2007   2006   2005   2004   2003   2003r   2002   2001

       Each of those year charts shows the averaged time window EM Signal data for that year plus an overlap of about four months before and after the year.  Each line on a given year chart represents three months of EM Signals averaged together for the time period ending with the date of the line.  The lines are offset from one another by ten days.

       Researchers can study the charts and attempt to determine which past earthquakes might have been forecast if the charts had been available at the time when the earthquake occurred.  If any significant observations are made I would be interested in hearing about them.  Please send any comments to seismic@ix.netcom.com

       When there is an “r” after a year such as 2003r it means that some additional research data and comments have been added to that chart.  For example, it might explain that the approach of a specific earthquake could be seen in the chart.

       In some cases an approaching earthquake might appear on a chart, but the line peaks associated with it will be at longitudes other than the longitude where it actually occurred.  Peaks associated with an approaching earthquake could appear 90 or 180 longitude degrees to the east or to the west of the earthquake’s true longitude.

       During the months after an earthquake occurs the longitudes of the peaks on the chart might shift dramatically.  That could be indicating that earthquake fault zone strain is shifting from where the earthquake occurred to other locations.

       Data for early in the year 2001 are not as good as with other years as relatively few EM Signals were recorded.

DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKES  AND  THEIR  AFTERSHOCKS

       The following Chart shows the range of Chart line variations seen with earthquakes occurring at different times and locations.  Each of the earthquakes on the Chart was a destructive one that occurred between October of 1989 and May of 2008.  The May 12, 2008 earthquake in China looks unusual in that there is only one strong peak around 180 E longitude.  That is probably saying something significant regarding how it was triggered.

Earthquake Aftershocks  -  If earthquakes were being triggered by the same forces all of the time then the Etdprog program’s EM Signal and earthquake Chart lines would probably always display peaks at the earthquake’s actual longitude.  However the EM Signals associated with the January 26, 2001 India earthquake, and the earthquakes on the above Chart demonstrate that this is frequently not the case.  That then complicates forecasting efforts.  The situation can be different with some earthquake aftershocks.  Even though the Chart line peaks for the original earthquake might not match its longitude, the Chart line peaks for EM Signals associated with its aftershocks and the aftershock peaks themselves could match those of the original earthquake.  And by watching for EM Signals that have Chart lines peaks similar to the ones associated with the first earthquake, or similar to those associated with EM Signals detected before it occurred, aftershocks can at times be accurately predicted.

       On the above Chart similarities like that can be seen with the two 1998 Afghanistan earthquakes, the two 1999 Turkey earthquakes, and probably the 1989 and 2003 California, USA earthquakes.

SOME  OF  THE  ETDPROG  COMPUTER  PROGRAM’S  OPTIONS

       The Etdprog computer program is a powerful and versatile earthquake forecasting and earthquake research program.  And that is with about half of its original features presently removed or disabled so that it could be documented and prepared for circulation as quickly as possible.  The most powerful feature of the program is probably the fact that it should be possible for even amateur computer programmers to easily add new data processing routines.  In some cases those routines can be written using languages other than Perl and then linked with the program.

       The program presently allows its users to compare EM Signals with earthquakes that occurred during certain time windows, at certain latitudes or longitudes, that had certain magnitudes, or ones that were destructive or nondestructive.  The earthquakes can be organized in Reports by their longitude, date, or the quality of their match with the EM Signals.  EM Signals can be processed individually, in a single averaged group regarded by the program as a single signal, or in multiple averaged groups that make it possible to see how the locations to which the EM Signals are pointing change with time.

       When certain screens are displayed options can be chosen by pressing a keyboard key followed by the Enter key.  The program uses the freeware Gnuplot software (included in the download) to generate Charts and Maps.  And when the Charts and Maps are displayed options are chosen by simply pressing a keyboard key.  The user can then usually interactively control the display by pressing the up, down, left, or right arrow key.  The user can change the keyboard key that controls a given Chart and Map option and add to or remove information from the help files that display when the “h” keyboard key is pressed.

The Chart/Map/Report Main Options screen looks something like the following.
There could be some minor differences in the latest version.

The Time Data Entry screen looks something like this:

This is a recent Fast Help screen for Charts and Maps:

COMPUTER  PROGRAM   AVAILABILITY  AND  REQUIREMENTS

       Etdprog is a compiled Perl computer language .exe type program that will run on a regular PC type computer using Windows Vista, XP, 2000, or NT.  It has been stored at this location in a zip file that is roughly ten megabytes in size.  The zip file contains a complete package of programs, support files, and graphics software.  Nothing else needs to be downloaded.  The computer program does not install itself in the user’s computer or change the computer operating system’s registry files when it is run.  If the directory that it is stored in and a few text files created by the graphics software are deleted, the program is completely gone from the user’s computer.

       There are no processor speed or memory size requirements for the Etdprog computer program.  One of the computers it is presently running on has a processor that is more than five year old, and only about four hundred megabytes of memory. It will run much faster with newer and faster processors and four gigabytes of memory.  It can be stored on and copied from a CD.  But because it stores some data in text files when it runs it will only run properly on a storage medium that has a read/write capability such as a computer’s internal hard drive, an external hard drive, or a flash drive.

THE  PROGRAM’S  SOURCE  CODE

       The source code for the Etdprog.exe computer program is being prepared for storage in the Etdprog.zip file.  It presently consists of more than five thousand lines of Perl computer language code.  And the effort to get it fully documented etc. might take a while.   However, the source code for an earlier version of Etdprog.exe that contains the same probability equations as the latest version is available in the Archive.zip file.  Etdprog-archive.txt can also be examined.  Most of the added code in newer versions of Etdprog.exe is used to generate Charts and Maps.

       A Perl language program compiler has to be used to get that source code file to run.  Free download Perl language compilers can be found at the ActiveState Web site.

       Etdprog.exe will presently run only on PC type computers using Windows Vista, XP, 2000, or NT.  When the source code becomes available programmers will be able to modify the original program and create versions that will run on other types of computers, using other operating systems such as Unix and Linux, and using other computer languages such as one of the “C” family of languages.

       The source code has also been stored here for an original TrueBasic program called SunGP.exe.   Etdprog activates the SunGP.exe program when it needs information regarding the locations of the sun and the moon in the sky for the times when earthquakes occurred and when EM Signals were detected.

THE  GNU  LICENSE

       An early version of the Etdprog received a formal U.S. government copyright several years ago.  The program that has been stored at this locations can be downloaded and used for free by anyone under a GNU license.  The program can be circulated to other people.  And when the source code becomes available people will be able to modify it or even completely rewrite the program.  People will not have permission to claim that they wrote the original program.  And in all fairness, when researchers use data generated by the Etdprog program in publications and technical papers they should reference the program.

OTHER  DOWNLOADABLE  COMPUTER  PROGRAMS

       Other earthquake forecasting related computer programs are scheduled to be stored at this location as soon as time permits.  For example, one uses records of past earthquakes to determine the probability that an earthquake could occur at a specific location during a specified time window.  Another provides information regarding things such as the locations of the sun and the moon in the sky over time, and the strength of their gravitational pulls on the Earth etc.

FUTURE  EFFORTS

The following are important projects for future efforts:

---  More accurate probability need to be developed for use with the freeware downloadable computer program.

---  Better computer graphics software needs to be developed for use with the program.

---  An Internet Web page needs to be created that contains detailed descriptions of Earthquake Precursors that people could watch for when they suspected that an earthquake might be about to occur where they live.

---  Detailed plans need to be developed for what people should do when they determine that an earthquake could be about to occur where they live.  How could effective warnings be circulated?  How and when would cities be evacuated etc.?

---  An Internet Web site based bulletin board and repository needs to be created where people could use data entry screens such as the one below in order to submit information regarding earthquake forecasts, earthquake research information, and earthquake precursors that they observed or wanted to report.  When one of the board members submitted a post he or she would specify who, if anyone, would be allowed to post responses.  His or her post would then go to the top of the list.  One post entry would be maintained on the display page for each of the board members.  And when a board member submitted a new post it would replace his or her previous one on the main display page.  Board members would be allowed to discuss only their own research etc.  Restrictions such as those would help avoid negative posts and keep arguments regarding different forecasting methods etc. from getting started.

OTHER  EARTHQUAKE   FORECASTING  TECHNOLOGIES

        The Etdprog computer program is expected to become a widely used and studied forecasting program.  A reason for that is the fact that it is be a freeware computer program that anyone with Internet access and the right type of computer can download and run.

       The program might also encourage governments and researchers around the world to increase their level of interest in other earthquake forecasting technologies.  That could happen because the data that the Etdprog computer program generates have a limited accuracy and reliability.  And governments etc. might find the program to be a good starting point for the development of their own earthquake forecasting programs, but not sufficiently accurate and reliable for all of their needs.  If and when they decide that this is the case then they might begin searching for other technologies that can fill in the blank spaces or even completely replace the Etdprog computer program.

       The primary goal for developing the Etdprog computer program technology has been to provide people around the world with at least some type of warning when a destructive earthquake is headed their way.  And if the computer program encourages governments and professional and amateur researchers to develop even better technologies for forecasting earthquakes resulting in the Etdprog computer program becoming obsolete and no longer used then it will still have helped accomplish its primary goal.


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