INTERPRETING THE YEAR CHARTS

Latest Update:  November 7, 2010

OBSERVATIONS  REGARDING  THE  YEAR  CHARTS

Those Observations are the most important data on this Web page.

Some  Year  Chart  Explanation  Information

More  Detailed  Discussions  Of  The  Year  Chart  Data

The  Three  2001  Through  2010  Composite  Year  Chart  Picture  Files


       The purpose of this Web page is to list observations and theories regarding what the data on the Year Charts (Charts) might be telling us about earthquakes and other events taking place in the Earth's crust.

       The Year Chart data appear to be quite complex.  And it is expected to take a fair amount of time and effort to determine what processes in the Earth's crust the different line peak groups on various Year Charts are associated with.  For example, the first and easiest comparison to make would be between those line peak groups and powerful earthquakes.  Next, the line peak groups need to be compared with the times when volcanoes around the world became active.

       If other researchers are able to make any significant observations regarding the Year Chart data I would be interested in hearing about them.  Please send any comments to: seismic@ix.netcom.com

       Details regarding how the various data lines etc. on the Year Charts were generated can be found on the Year Charts Web page.

       The terms EM Signal and Earthquake Precursor Signal that are being used fairly often on this Web page refer to what are believed to be earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic energy field pulses that can be detected before many earthquakes, and at times even after the earthquakes have occurred.

       Web site visitors seeing the information on this Web page for the first time should probably take the following steps so that they can understand what types of data the Year Charts represent.

1.  Briefly examine the Charts Web page.  It displays copies of the years 2001 through 2010 composite Year Charts without any explanation information.  That will provide some idea of what the EM Signal and earthquake data lines and earthquake circles and triangles represent.

2.  Read over the Some Year Chart Explanation Information section of this present Web page.  That will provide some information regarding what the various data lines and line peaks etc. on the charts represent.

3.  After Web site visitors are familiar with that introductory information they can skip over it in the future and go straight to the Observations Regarding The Year Charts section of this Web page to see what the latest theories and observations are regarding the Year Chart data.

       A considerable amount of additional information regarding how the various data lines etc. were generated and additional research data and picture files can be found on the Year Charts Web page.

       When reviewing the information on this Web page, viewers might want to open the Charts Web page in a separate Internet browser window.  They can then move back and forth between this and that Web page and examine the year 2001 through 2010 composite Year Charts as the data on those picture files are being discussed.  Both Web pages could also be displayed at the same time in reduced size windows.

        The following chart viewer can also be used to study those large composite Year Charts picture files.

 

       The following chart is a section of the year 2003 Year Chart that has had some explanation information added.  It is being displayed here for demonstration purposes.

 

SOME  YEAR  CHART  EXPLANATION  INFORMATION

Longitude Range Overlap  -  The X axis for each Year Chart line is longitude.  The Y axis is time with the most recent time at the top of any chart.  The 160 E to 180 E longitude range on the left side of each chart line is the same as the 160 E to 180 E range on the right side.  And the same is true for the 180 E to 160 W longitude range on the right side of each chart line.  Those longitude range overlaps are intended to make it easier for researchers to study the chart lines.  When examining the 175 W area on a chart’s left side for example they won’t have to constantly look over to the right side to see what the line structure looks like around 175 E.

Circles And Triangles  -  There are circles of different colors on the charts to show when and where earthquakes having different magnitude ranges occurred.  With most of the charts circles are displayed for only earthquakes that were 7 and higher magnitude.  That is because one of the goals of this research effort is to determine if the EM Signals are most closely linked with higher magnitude earthquakes as logic would suggest.  Some of the charts also display red triangles that show when and where earthquakes occurred that produced at least one fatality.  Ones that produced fatalities can be in any magnitude range.

EM Signal Line Peaks  -  Each of the EM Signal lines represents several to as many as 150 or more EM Signals detected during a 90 day period that were averaged together to produce a single composite type EM Signal.  That 90 day time window for each line ends on the date listed on the left side of the line.  Where there are line peaks at some longitude on one or more of a Year Chart’s EM Signal lines such as the 123 W area Precursor Signals line peaks on the above chart’s December 22 EM Signal line it means that the Etdprog.exe Earthquake And Tornado Data evaluation computer program determined that the composite EM Signal associated with that data line was a good match for earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.  Line peaks can be on EM Signal lines at some longitude both before and after a powerful earthquake occurs.  And they could be associated with any number of things.  The earlier ones could be precursor signals.  The ones appearing after the earthquake could be associated with aftershocks.  Or they could be associated with precursor signals that are still being factored into the 90 day Time Windows appearing a few months after the earthquake.

Earthquake Line Peaks  -  Where there are line peaks at some longitude on one or more of a Year Chart’s earthquake lines such as the December 22, 2003 121 W California earthquake line on the above chart it means that the Etdprog.exe Earthquake And Tornado Data evaluation computer program determined that the earthquake associated with that data line was a good match for earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.  Ideally, on an earthquake line there should be a single large peak at the longitude where the earthquake actually occurred.  But that is the case only some of the time.  Quite often the line peaks are at other longitudes.  That means that the Etdprog.exe program determined that the earthquake was a good match for ones in its database file that occurred at those other longitudes.

0 - 90 - 180 - 270  Degree Line Peak Longitude Symmetry  -  When the Etdprog.exe Earthquake And Tornado Data evaluation computer program does its probability calculations it regards longitudes that are 90 and 180 degrees to the east or west of one another as being the same.  And so if the program determines that some EM Signals or an actual earthquake were good matches for earthquakes that occurred at 122 W then it might draw a line peak at 122 W and as well as line peaks at 32 W, 58 E, and 148 E.  However, the line peaks at all four of those longitudes will not necessarily look the same.  That is because the program also takes into account how many earthquakes in its database file it found at each of those locations.  If there were a large number of earthquakes at 122 W for example and only a few at 32 W then there might be some strong line peaks on a chart around 122 W and few or none around 32 W.

Earthquake Fault Zone Latitudes And Longitudes  -  At the present time, the Etdprog.exe computer program does not make use of latitude information for the earthquakes in its database file.  Only their longitudes are considered.  And so, calculations related to earthquakes that occurred at some longitude in fault zones south of the equator are the same as the ones for earthquakes that occurred at that longitude in fault zones north of the equator.  Hence, the earthquakes might have occurred in completely different fault zone systems on the edges of entirely different tectonic plates.  It is possible that earthquake latitude information will be used with future versions of the Etdprog.exe program.

 

OBSERVATIONS  REGARDING  THE  YEAR  CHARTS

       It is recommended that Web site visitors reading this section of this Web page for the first time follow the three preparation steps listed at the top of this Web page.  That should make it easier to understand the information in this Observations section.

       As explained earlier, the terms EM Signal and Earthquake Precursor Signal that are being used fairly often on this Web page refer to what are believed to be earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic energy field pulses that can be detected before many earthquakes, and at times even after the earthquakes have occurred.

Earthquake Precursor Line Peaks And Precursor Line Peak “Transitions  -  As will be explained in this section of this Web page, there are easily observed earthquake precursor line peaks on Year Chart data lines generated for EM Signals that were detected before some high magnitude earthquakes occurred.  Those line peaks are at the same longitudes as the earthquakes.  And there are numerous examples of precursor line peak “Transitions” that can be observed at times both before and after many of the high magnitude earthquakes on the Year Charts.  Those precursor line peaks and the Transitions indicate that EM Signals were being generated around the times when the earthquakes occurred.  They could probably be easily detected beforehand in the areas where the earthquakes were going to occur.  And that means that the earthquakes could probably have been predicted.

Earthquake Precursor Line Peaks At Correct Longitudes  -  On the above chart there are line peaks around 123 W on the November 22, December 2, 12, and 22, and January 1 EM Signal lines.  It is believed that those line peaks are indicators that EM Signals pointing to the approach of the deadly December 22, 2003 6.5 magnitude California earthquake were being detected for at least a month before it occurred.  The January 1 EM Signal line peaks might have been associated with aftershocks, or with precursor signals still in the January 1 90 day Time Window.

       Three other easily observed examples of accurate longitude earthquake precursor line peaks can be seen on the Charts Web page picture files.  They appeared during the weeks or months before the tremendously powerful 8.8 magnitude February 27, 2010 earthquake in Chile, the extremely destructive January 12, 2010 7.0 magnitude earthquake in Haiti, and the tremendously powerful and similarly destructive December 26, 2004 9.0 magnitude earthquake in the Indonesia area.  They are believed to indicators that strong EM Signals were being generated before those earthquakes.  They could have probably been detected in those fault zone areas and alerted people to the approach of the earthquakes.

Earthquake Precursor Line Peaks At Other Longitudes  -  In some cases there are precursor EM Signal line peaks at the longitude where the approaching earthquake is going to occur such as with that above California earthquake example.  In other cases there might not be any precursor signal line peaks because no signals were ever generated.  And finally, in many cases there are precursor signal line peaks that are not at the longitude where the earthquake is going to occur.  The following are some reasons that that could be happening.

---  Line Peak Symmetry Effects  -  In this case the EM Signal line peaks do not appear at the true earthquake longitude but rather 90 or 180 degrees to the east or west of that longitude.  As stated earlier, this can happen because of the way that the Etdprog.exe computer program does its calculations.  If for example the earthquake is going to occur at 32 W and the computer program cannot find any matching earthquakes at that longitude in its database file then it might instead draw a line peak 90 degrees to the west of there at 122 W.  There are numerous earthquakes at that location in the database file.  And some of them would likely match the EM Signals.

---  Probability Equation Limitations  -  The Etdprog.exe computer program uses sun and moon location and ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide crest and trough location based probability equations to match EM Signals with past earthquakes.  It also uses those same equations to match individual earthquakes with past earthquakes.  There are probably at least a dozen variables associated with those equations.  And they were assigned fixed values years ago when the first version of the Etdprog.exe program was developed.  No efforts have been made so far to optimize those values or to add new variables to the probability equations.  That type of work is scheduled for future research efforts.  In the mean time, it is likely that the use of fixed value variables like that has an effect on the accuracy of the line peak longitudes.  For example, earthquakes in the database file that occurred in fault zones running north and south might need to be processed differently than ones that occurred in fault zones running east and west.  For the Solid Earth Tide calculations, a fixed moon gravity / sun gravity related value of 2.5 is being used.  That value does not yet take into account the changing distances between the moon and the Earth and the sun and the Earth at different times of the month and year.  And that could be affecting line peak longitude values.

---  Earthquake Triggering Forces  -  The Etdprog.exe computer program uses probability equations that attempt to determine how forces related to the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon are triggering earthquakes at different locations.  However, in many cases an earthquake that is about to occur will be triggered by forces that are similar to ones that normally trigger earthquakes occurring elsewhere.  For example, the earthquake might be about to occur at 65 W.  But it is going to be triggered by forces that more often trigger earthquakes that occur at 45 E.  And so the program will draw line peaks at 45 E instead of 65 W.

---  Fault Zone Strain Transfer  -  A fault zone at 145 E might be accumulating earthquake related strain for several years.  And for some time its rock layers might be generating EM Signals.  However, after a certain time the strain in the fault zone reaches a point where the rock layers have been stretched, compressed, or twisted as much as they can be.  And they are no longer able to generate those EM Signals.  Instead, some other fault zone perhaps a thousand miles away at 122 E starts to collect strain because both faults are on the edge of the same tectonic plate that is being gradually deformed by the strain collecting in the first fault zone.  And the rock layers in that second, distant fault zone then begin generating EM Signals even though the earthquake is going to occur in the first one.  The Etdprog.exe computer program then correctly identifies the location of the second fault zone where the EM Signals are being generated.  And it draws line peaks at that longitude.  But that is not the location where the actual earthquake will eventually occur.

Gradual Precursor Line Peak Location Shifts  -  Months or even years before a powerful earthquake occurs the EM Signal line peaks might appear on the charts at a certain longitude.  And then they slowly move to the east or to the west.  That might be an indicator that approaching earthquake related strain began collecting at some location along the edge of a tectonic plate.  And rock layers in that area started generating EM Signals.  But as the strain levels started to increase the location where those EM Signals were being generated began to move to the east or west.

Line Peak Location Shifts Following An Earthquake  -  When a powerful earthquake is approaching, strain can be building in some fault zone along the edge of a tectonic plate because two adjacent plates are locked together at that location..  And as the stain increases one or both of the plates can get distorted.  When the earthquake occurs the strain is released at that location.  And one of the tectonic plates might then attempt to get rid of that distortion and regain its normal shape.  As a result, strain can start to travel along the edge of that plate to other locations.  And rock layers in those areas can then start generating EM Signals.  For any number of months following the earthquake this process can be seen on the charts as EM Signal line peaks slowly moving to the east or to the west.

Line Peak Location Transitions  -  On the above chart, EM Signal line peaks can be seen stating to appear around 125 E on the August 24, 2003 data line.  And they continued to appear at that general longitude for weeks.  They might have been associated with precursor signals for the powerful 8.3 magnitude earthquake in the Japan area that occurred a month later at 144 E on September 9, 2003.  And the abrupt appearance of those strong line peaks can be referred to as approaching earthquake related line peak “Transitions.”  As explained earlier on this Web page, the line peaks do not necessarily need to be at the same longitude as the earthquake.

       On the November 12, 2003 EM Signal data line those 125 E line peaks disappeared.  And on the November 22, 2003 EM Signal data line, line peaks began to appear around 123 W longitude.  The disappearance of the 125 E line peaks and the appearance of the 123 W line peaks was another line peak “Transition.”

       The Year Charts show that those line peak Transitions are frequently being observed during the months before and after especially powerful earthquakes occur.  And they are some of the best indicators that EM Signals being generated around those times are in fact associated with the approach of those powerful earthquakes in spite of the fact that the longitudes of the line peaks might not be the same as the actual earthquake longitude.

       Several of the most striking groups of Transitions can be seen by examining the EM Signal lines peaks seen before and after the 8.3 magnitude November 16, 2006 and 8.1 magnitude January 13, 2007 Kuril Islands area earthquakes.

Precursor Signal Line Peaks Height And Earthquake Location  -  On the above chart there are strong line peaks around 123 W longitude before the December 22, 2003 California earthquake and much smaller line peaks around 58 E longitude where the slightly more powerful and far more destructive Bam, Iran earthquake occurred a few days later.  EM Signal strengths appear to be affected by distance.  And California is much closer to where these EM Signals are being detected than Iran which is on the opposite side of the planet from the signal detection location.  That could be one of the reasons the Iran related precursor signals appeared to be much weaker.  Another reason is the fact that as the Earthquake Database line on the chart shows, there are many more California area earthquakes in the earthquake database file than there are Iran area earthquakes.  So, just based on simple probabilities it is expected that there would be more EM Signal matches with California earthquakes.

The Effects Of Using Different Database File Earthquake Magnitude Ranges On EM Signal And Earthquake Line Peak Shapes And Longitudes  -  To be added.

Year Charts Displaying Circles For Earthquakes Having Magnitudes Of 5 And Higher, 6 And Higher, And 7 And Higher  -  To be added.  Also, see the Year Charts Web page for already available data.

EM Signals Pointing To The Approach Of Destructive Earthquakes  -  To be added.

EM Signal Line Peaks And Volcano Activity  -  To be added.

EM Signal Line Peaks And Solar And Geomagnetic Storm Activity  -  To be added.

EM Signals And Fault Zone Location And Environment  -  To be added.


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