ARCHIVES - INTERPRET

Latest Update:  May 5 , 2010

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LATEST  FORECAST  DATA   (Data.html)     YEAR  CHARTS     SIGNIFICANT  EARTHQUAKES   (USGS)


The picture files on this Archives - Interpret Web page, the Archives

Web page, and the Year Chart files are intended to make it possible

for people to determine if the Chart A files on the Data.html

Web page listed above can be used to tell when

Significant Earthquakes are about to occur.


       When earthquake forecasters, government officials, and disaster mitigation personnel see line peaks starting to appear at some longitude of interest on Tine Window lines on the most recent Data.html Web page Chart A picture type files such as the ones on this Web page or the Archives Web page, they should check to see if there are any easily observed Earthquake Precursors such as Earthquake Clouds in the vicinity of a fault zone located somewhere along that longitude line.

       If any Earthquake Precursors are observed then that might serve as an indicator that a significant earthquake could be about to occur in that area.

       The information on this Archives – Interpret Web page explains how to interpret the data in the Chart A picture type files found on the Data.html and Archives Web page.  And there are some examples of what those Chart A files looked like or might have looked like shortly before a number of significant earthquakes occurred.  People should be able to determine from this information if they could use the Chart A data to detect the approach of earthquakes that are going to occur in areas that are of interest to them such as where they live.

 

TABLE  OF  CONTENTS

EM  SIGNALS

EXAMPLES  OF  CHART A  AND  CHART B  TYPE  PICTURE  FILES

A  DISCUSSION  OF  THE  CHART  A   PICTURE  FILES

CHART  A   PICTURE  FILES  THAT  DISPLAY  ADDITIONAL  INFORMATION

CHART A ACCURACY

A  DISCUSSION  OF  THE  CHART  B   PICTURE  FILES

OBSERVATIONS  AND  COMMENTS  REGARDING
THE  FORECASTING  METHOD  DISCUSSED  ON  THIS  WEB  SITE

EXAMPLES  OF  SOME  OF  THOSE  OBSERVATIONS


EM  SIGNALS

Electromagnetic energy field pulse type earthquake warning signals (Earthquake Precursor)

EM Signals are being used to generate the Chart A and Chart B type picture files
displayed on this Web site.  The signals are presently believed to be associated with
earthquake fault zone activity related fluctuations in the Earth's geomagnetic energy field.


EXAMPLES  OF  CHART A  AND  CHART B  TYPE  PICTURE  FILES


Chart A  LINES  SUCH  AS  THE  ONES  ON  THE  CHART  BELOW  ARE  TIME

WINDOWS  THAT  END  ON THE  DATE  LISTED  AT  THE  LEFT  SIDE  OF  EACH  LINE

The horizontal axis of each Chart A line is longitude.


Chart B  LINES  ARE  INDIVIDUAL  EM  SIGNAL  TIMES  AND  EARTHQUAKE  TIMES

The horizontal axis of each Chart B line is longitude.
em1 = lowest intensity EM Signal     em9 = highest intensity EM Signal

       The Earthquake Precursor Detector discussed in another report at this Web Site represents a somewhat parallel effort to develop earthquake forecasting technology by research personnel in the People's Republic of China.


A  DISCUSSION  OF  THE  CHART  A   PICTURE  FILES

       The Chart A type picture file shown below could have been displayed on the Data.html Web page had the Etdprog.exe computer program been running in its present form on December 19, 2003.  Each horizontal line represents longitude.  A 20 degree overlap has been added to both sides of each line to make the data easier to interpret.

       Where there is a peak at some longitude on these picture file Time Window lines such as at 121 W (121 west) or 58 E (58 east) it means that the Etdprog.exe computer program determined that the electromagnetic pulse type signals (EM Signals) associated with that line were good matches with earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.  And that would mean that another powerful earthquake could be about to occur somewhere along that longitude line.  With some of the examples on this Web page powerful earthquakes did in fact occur at those longitudes.

2003/12/26 01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10 6.6 Bam, Iran
2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 8 6.5 Central California

       Sharp longitude peaks on the above chart around 121 W on Lines 2 through 6 might have been indicating that the deadly December 22, 2003 California, USA earthquake was about to occur.  And smaller longitude peaks around 58 E on Lines 2 through 8 might have been indicating that the tremendously destructive December 26, 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake was about to occur.

       The California and Iran earthquakes had about the same magnitudes.  But the 121 W area peaks on the above chart are larger than the 58 E area peaks.  One possible reason for that is the fact that these EM Signals are being detected in the United States at a location much closer to California than Iran.  And signal strength does appear to be affected to some extent by distance.  So the California earthquake related signals might be expected to be stronger than those associated with the Iran earthquake.

      Each line on one of these picture type charts can represent more than 150 EM Signals averaged together and then matched with around 50 nondestructive earthquakes plus 50 earthquakes that produced at least one fatality.   The Etdprog.exe program selects those earthquakes from its database file that contains records for more than 50,000 earthquakes.  So, the best 100 or so of those types of matches are displayed as peaks on a given line.  The larger the peak at some longitude on a line, the greater number of earthquakes occurring at that longitude that matched the EM Signals associated with the line.  For example, if that composite of all of those EM Signals averaged together matched 1 of the earthquakes that occurred in the past at some longitude then the peak at that longitude on the line would be 1 unit high.  If it matched 3 earthquakes that occurred at that longitude then the peak at that longitude would be 3 units high.

       Line #1 on each picture chart such as the partial chart shown below represents all of the EM Signals averaged together that were detected during a Time Window ending with the date on the left side of the line and going back 15 days in time.  So, Line #1 on this chart would represent an average of all of the EM Signals detected between the start of December 5, 2003 and the end of December 19, 2003.

       Also as shown above, Line #2 represents forty-five day’s worth of EM Signals in a Time Window that ends with that same date.  And Lines 3 through 14 (on the full chart) represent three month's worth of EM Signals averaged together ending with the date on the left side of each line.


       As shown above, Line #15 on each picture chart is the Earthquake Database line.  The peak heights on the line indicate how many earthquakes in the Etdprog.exe computer program’s earthquake database file occurred at a given longitude.  The more earthquakes that occurred at some longitude, the more likely the Etdprog.exe computer program would be able to find a match between one of them and the EM Signals associated with a given Time Window line.  So with all other things being equal, Line #15 shows that the program would be strongly inclined to draw chart line peaks around 175 W, 120 W, 65 W, and 125 E because the database file contains records for large numbers of earthquakes that occurred at those longitudes.

       In most cases the picture files were generated using a recent version of the Etdprog.exe computer program earthquake database file that contains data for more than 50,000 earthquakes that occurred around the world going back to the beginning of 1990.  Those earthquake data are mostly from U.S. National Earthquake Information Service files.


       The date of the earthquake database file used for a given picture file can be found in the upper left corner of that file.  With the above partial picture chart the data of the database file being used was 2010-03-16 (March 16, 2010).  The Chart A files on the Data.html Web page are always generated with the latest earthquake database file.  So they do not have a date like that in their upper left corner.  That date is only on the files displayed on this Archives - Interpret Web page and the Archives Web page.


CHART  A   PICTURE  FILES  THAT
DISPLAY  ADDITIONAL  INFORMATION

       There are two types of Chart A type picture files displayed on the Archives Web page.  The upper chart in each set of two is the standard Chart A type file that can be found on the Data.html Web page and also seen in the above discussions on this Archives – Interpret Web page.  All of the data lines on those charts contain information related to EM Signal Time Windows.

       Each of the second, lower Chart A type picture files in the sets on the Archives Web page such as the picture file below displays those same data plus additional data lines for the earthquake or earthquakes being discussed, and in some cases one or more additional earthquakes. 

2003/12/26 01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10 6.6 Bam, Iran
2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 8 6.5 Central California

       As with the earthquake lines on the Chart B picture files discussed in the next section of this Web page, the pattern of line peaks on the earthquake lines in those lower Chart A files such as lines 1 and 2 for the Bam, Iran and California earthquakes in the chart above, is an indicator of the degree to which the earthquake matched other earthquakes in the database file that occurred in the past at that same longitude.

       Ideally each of those earthquake lines should have a large peak at the longitude where the earthquake occurred.  Unfortunately, that is often not the case.  And that means that the earthquake was triggered by forces that were different than the ones associated with other earthquakes that occurred at that longitude.  And that would probably make it more difficult for the Etdprog.exe computer program to determine where the earthquake was likely to occur.

       In the Destructive Earthquakes charts on the Year Charts Web page there are additional examples of earthquakes where there is no large peak at the longitude where the earthquake occurred.


CHART  A  ACCURACY

Accurate Forecasts  -  With some of the earthquakes displayed on this Web page and the Archives Web page there is a clear, strong peak at the earthquake’s longitude on some of a chart’s Time Window lines indicating that it might have been easy to tell that the earthquake could be on the way.

More Difficult To Interpret  -  With some of the earthquakes the data have to be carefully interpreted in order to determine where an expected earthquake might be about to occur.

Not Too Helpful  -  With some of the earthquakes it would have probably been impossible to tell that it was approaching if only these Chart A type data were used.


A  DISCUSSION  OF  THE  CHART  B   PICTURE  FILES

       The Chart B type picture type files like the one shown below are not yet available on the Data.html Web page.  However, they are being discussed here because they provide important information regarding how the Etdprog.exe computer program works.

       Each line on a Chart B file represents either a single EM Signal or an earthquake.  And the peaks at different longitudes on each line show how well that EM Signal or earthquake matched earthquakes in the database file that occurred in the past at that longitude.  The larger the peak, the more past earthquakes in the database file the signal or the earthquake matched.

       The em values for the EM Signal lines represent a somewhat arbitrary linear signal strength scale that goes from 1 for the lowest strength signal to 9 for the highest strength signal.  Each of the Time Window lines on the Chart A picture files represents 15, 45, or 90 day’s worth of those Chart B individual EM Signal lines averaged together.  And in that averaging process, an em9 strength EM Signal line is given an importance rating 9 times as large as an em1 strength line.

       The lines on the Chart B files are in chronological order with the most recent events at the top of the chart.  By comparing the peak patterns for individual EM Signal lines with those of the earthquakes that occurred a few days to several weeks or months later it can often be seen that some signal was probably associated with that approaching earthquake.  Earthquake forecasters around the world could and should be trying to compare individual EM Signals like that with records for past earthquakes where they live etc.  And when strong matches were found they could begin watching for other Earthquake Precursors in that area such as the appearance of an Earthquake Cloud.  If any precursors were observed then that could be a sign that an earthquake was approaching.

       In a country where people are threatened by earthquakes, such an effort might require as little as two days of work like that per week by a single researcher.  Even the poorest nation on Earth could afford that.  In contrast, because of the amount of time it would take to make those comparisons it would be impossible for just one person such as myself to do that for earthquakes occurring around the world.

       One unusual observation regarding individual EM Signal lines that is not yet understood has to do with the fact that EM Signals matching an earthquake are at times generated within 48 hours after a powerful earthquake occurs.  And they don’t appear to be pointing to aftershocks.  Present theories propose that they are somehow associated with that previous earthquake and also with one that will occur in the future at some other location.  Some type of physical strain transfer or electromagnetic energy field transfer mechanism might be involved.

 

Significant Earthquakes That Are Being Used As Examples.

These Earthquakes Are Being Discussed In Detail On This Web Page.

There Are Quite A Few More Significant Earthquakes On The Archives Web Page.

2010/03/14 08:08:05 37.78N 141.56E 39 6.5 Japan Area
2010/03/04 00:18:52 22.90N 120.82E 23 6.4 Taiwan
2010/02/27 06:34:15 35.84S 72.71W 35 8.8 Chile Area
2005/03/28 16:09:36 2.06N 97.01E 30 8.7 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia
2003/12/26 01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10 6.6 Bam, Iran
2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 8 6.5 Central California
2005/10/08 03:50:41 34.53N 73.58E 26 7.6 Pakistan

 

OBSERVATIONS  AND  COMMENTS  REGARDING
THIS  FORECASTING  METHOD

       The following are some observations and comments regarding the earthquake related Chart A type charts stored on this present Web page and on the Archives Web page.  The present version of the Etdprog.exe computer program became operational in early 2010.  And I myself am seeing many of these data for the first time.  As a result, something new is learned about the data each time they are studied.  If anyone examining these charts has any additional observations that he or she would like to share then I would be interested in hearing about them.  Please try contacting me at seismic@ix.netcom.com with those comments.

There should have been a Time Window line peak at 13 E on the chart below.
However, as this section of this Web page will propose, volcanic activity related EM
Signal chart peaks at 65 W might have been overwhelming any earthquake related chart peaks.

2009/04/06 01:32:39 42.33N 13.33E 9 6.3 Central Italy

       With some of earthquakes discussed in the following sections of this Web page there are sharp peaks present at the earthquake's longitude on the chart.  But, as the chart for the above earthquake in Italy shows, expected peaks are not present at the earthquake's longitude on some of the other charts.  This section of this Web page will propose why those expected longitude peaks are not being observed for some earthquakes.

Poorly Understood EM Signal Generation Mechanism  -  Present theories propose that the signal generation process for the EM Signals used to prepare these charts could be quite complex.  And no one that I myself have ever heard of has any idea regarding exactly how it works.  One of the major energy sources for the signals might not be the fault zone rock layers themselves but rather the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field.  Under the right conditions it could be interacting with fault zones and causing the EM Signals to be generated.  A possible consequence of that could be that although EM Signal strength is affected to some extent by the magnitude of an approaching earthquake, it might be more strongly affected by other factors or phenomena such as solar storms that affect the strength and shape of the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field.

Computer Program Probability Equations That Are Not Yet Sophisticated Enough For Accurate Matches  -  The Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program probability equations attempt to match EM Signal characteristics with the triggering characteristics of past earthquakes.  And the presently used equations might not be sophisticated enough to correctly match all of the signals with the right earthquakes.  For one example, the computer program equations being used at this time regard all earthquakes occurring around the world as being the same.  However, fault zones running north and south, and ones running east and west might have important differences regarding how earthquakes in them are triggered and how EM Signals associated with them are being generated.

No Strong EM Signals Are Being Generated Before Some Earthquakes  -  For reasons that are not yet known, some approaching earthquakes might simply not be generating very many strong EM Signals.  That is most likely the case for low magnitude earthquakes.

EM Signals That Are Not Detectable In The Area Where The Monitor Is Located  -  In some cases the earthquakes might be generating EM Signals.  But for one reason or another the signals cannot be detected in the area where the signal detector is located.  However, those same signals might be detectable in other parts of the world.  If that particular theory is valid then it could have something to do with the shape and orientation of the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field at different times during the day.

Interference From Other EM Signals  -  In some cases the earthquakes might be generating signals.  And they are being detected.  But other strong EM Signals are being detected around the same time.  And the chart peaks associated with those other signals are so large they are causing the peaks associated with the approaching earthquake's signals to be too small to appear on the charts.  Present theories propose that certain volcanoes are causing strong EM Signals to be generated.  And they are having that effect on some of the charts.

No Earthquakes At The Earthquake’s Longitude In The Earthquake Database File  -  The Etdprog.exe computer program attempts to match EM Signals with past earthquakes that occurred at different longitudes.  And records for more than 50,000 of those earthquakes going back to the beginning of 1990 are in the most recent earthquake database file.  Some of the time an earthquake occurs at a longitude where relatively few earthquakes have occurred in the past.  And the computer program has few or perhaps no past earthquakes at that longitude to use for making comparisons.  So it cannot draw a peak at that longitude.  Because of the way the program does its calculations it regards longitudes that are 90 and 180 degrees apart as being similar to some extent.  And so there might not be a sharp peak at the expected longitude.  But there could be one at a longitude 90 or 180 degrees to the east or west of the earthquake’s true longitude.

EM Signal And Earthquake Characteristics Do Not Match  -  It appears that in many cases the triggering characteristics of the approaching earthquake do not match those of other earthquakes that occurred at the same longitude.  Instead they match the triggering characteristics of earthquakes that occurred at some other longitude.  And the Etdprog.exe computer program mistakenly draws a peak at those other earthquakes’ longitude.

EM Signals Are Being Generated In Wrong Fault Zones  -  Strain building in an approaching earthquake's fault zone can probably cause fault zones at other locations such as along the same edge of a tectonic plate to become stressed.  And even though an earthquake is not about to occur in one of those other fault zones their rock layers might start generating EM Signals in response to the stress.  The signals are then detected.  And the Etdprog.exe computer program draws a peak at the longitude or longitudes of the other fault zones even though they might be hundreds or thousands of miles away from the approaching earthquake's actual fault zone.


EXAMPLES  OF  SOME  OF  THOSE  OBSERVATIONS

       The following are examples of cases where the Etdprog.exe computer program was able to accurately detect the approach of one of the above earthquakes, and examples of cases where the data would have been difficult or impossible to evaluate.  Explanations are provided for why the forecasting computer program might not have been successful with some of the earthquakes.

Two Examples Of Accurate Forecasts  -  The examples below for Japan and Taiwan earthquakes could be showing how well the Etdprog.exe earthquake forecasting computer program can work when an approaching earthquake is generating detectable EM Signals that the program is able to accurately evaluate.

Success  -  Japan Earthquakes  -  The following fairly powerful earthquakes occurred within days of one another in the Japan area.  The 6.5 magnitude one was strongly felt.  And the Etdprog.exe computer program drew a strong peak at the correct longitude (142 E) where that earthquake was about to occur.  Had earthquake forecasting personnel in Japan been able to observe earthquake precursors such as an Earthquake Cloud somewhere along the 142 E longitude line in the Japan area then they might have known that the earthquake was approaching.

2010/03/14 08:08:05 37.78N 141.56E 39 6.5 Japan Area
2010/03/13 12:46:26 37.58N 141.30E 73 5.6 Japan Area
2010/03/12 17:32:09 34.88N 141.63E 19 5.8 Japan Area

 

Success  -  Taiwan Earthquake  -  The following earthquake was strongly felt in Taiwan.  There was a fair amount of building damage.  And scores of people were injured.  The moderately strong Time Window line peaks at 121 E longitude might have been associated with that approaching earthquake.   Had earthquake forecasting personnel in Taiwan been able to observe earthquake precursors such as an Earthquake Cloud somewhere along the 121 E longitude line in the Taiwan area then they might have known that the earthquake was approaching and been prepared for it.

2010/03/04 00:18:52 22.90N 120.82E 23 6.4 Taiwan

 

Problem  -  No Strong EM Signals  -  There should have been strong Time Window chart peaks around 73 W on the following chart for the extremely powerful and highly destructive 8.8 magnitude Chile earthquake that claimed hundreds of lives.  And a strong peak can be seen at that longitude on the 45 day Time Window line, but surprisingly not on the 15 or 90 day and earlier Time Window Lines.  That lack of strong EM Signals has been observed with some other South America earthquakes.  It is possible that earthquakes occurring along the West Coast of South America area are simply not generating large numbers of strong EM Signals that can be easily detected in the area of the United States where I live.  Research personnel in the People’s Republic of China stated that about seven minutes before the Chile earthquake the Earthquake Precursor Detector discussed in another report at this Web Site detected such a strong EM Signal that it stopped working, even though it was operating in China, a considerable distance from Chile.  The detector had to be powered down and restarted to get it running again.

2010/02/27 06:34:15 35.84S 72.71W 35 8.8 Chile Area

 

Problem  -  EM Signal Interference  -  There should probably have been at least some peak activity around 13 E on the following chart.  However it appears that the chart peaks around 65 W that are believed to have been associated with volcanic activity were so strong they overwhelmed virtually all of the other Time Window line peaks.  As a consequence any chart peaks associated with the approaching earthquake in Italy might have been too small to appear on the chart. 

2009/04/06 01:32:39 42.33N 13.33E 9 6.3 Central Italy

 

Problem  -  No Matching Earthquakes In The Earthquake Database File  -  The importance of using a relatively recent version of the earthquake database file can be seen if the picture file shown below on the left that used a 2010-03-16 earthquake database file is compared with the same EM Signal based picture file on the right that used a 2003-12-22 database file that contained many fewer earthquakes.  The strong peaks around 121 W are not present on the chart on the right because the Etdprog.exe computer program could not find any earthquakes at that longitude in the database file to match with the EM Signals.

2003/12/26 01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10 6.6 Bam, Iran
2003/12/22 19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 8 6.5 Central California

 

Problem  -  Time Window Line Peaks Appearing At Related Longitudes  -  The powerful and destructive Pakistan earthquake shown below claimed something like 90,000 lives.  It could be an example of how the Etdprog.exe computer program might draw a chart line peak at a longitude that is 90 or 180 degrees to the east or west of the earthquake’s longitude rather than at its true longitude.  As Line #15 shows, the earthquake database file contained few or no data for earthquakes occurring around 74 E longitude.  So the program could not match the EM Signals with any past earthquakes at that longitude.  When it does its calculations the Etdprog.exe computer program regards longitudes that are 90 and 180 degrees to the east or west of one another as being somewhat similar.  And as this example could be showing, instead of drawing a peak at 74 E the computer program might have drawn peaks on the Time Window line 3 through 9 at 166 E in response to EM Signals associated with the approaching earthquake.  166 E is a little more than 90 longitude degrees to the east of 74 E.

2005/10/08 03:50:41 34.53N 73.58E 26 7.6 Pakistan

 

 



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